According to the Vedomosti, which claimed that the housing purchasing power of the maternal capital fell by 38% compared to its peak in 2016. In nominal terms, the payment for the second child rose from 453 026 rubles to 963 243 rubles for two children in 2026 – 2.1 times. Meanwhile, home prices grew by 3.4 times, reducing the area that could be bought from 8.4 sq m in 2016 to just 5.2 sq m in 2026.
The drop means families can afford less housing despite higher nominal payments. Because of inflation and rising real‑estate costs, the real value of the capital fell significantly. This may force families to seek cheaper neighborhoods or look for additional financing to complete a purchase.
According to economists, the decline reflects an imbalance between social payments and the housing market. They stress that nominal growth does not compensate for inflation and note that without additional subsidies, the capital will become even less effective for acquiring housing. Analysts warn that if prices keep outpacing nominal increases, the program may need recalibration toward broader family support.
In social networks users express concern about the trend. Some note that they now need to look for cheaper neighborhoods or use extra savings. Others suggest the government consider indexing payments to real‑estate prices, fearing the capital may soon be insufficient for even one room.
The situation raises questions about the effectiveness of the maternal capital program as a tool for improving demography. Analysts warn that if housing prices continue to outpace nominal increases, the program may require recalibration, perhaps shifting focus to broader family support measures.
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