The IMF said in its July report that the world economy is splitting along two axes: dependence on expensive oil and embedment in the AI‑hardware chain. On one side are chip exporters; strong semiconductor demand in countries like South Korea over‑rode the hit from high oil prices. On the other side sit the Eurozone and the Middle East, whose growth forecasts have been trimmed to 0.9% and 0.7% respectively because of energy‑import reliance and lack of local chip production.
The numbers illustrate the divide: South Korea’s annualized growth rate in the first quarter reached 7.5%, far above the IMF’s 1.8% projection for the year. Meanwhile, forecasters now expect the Eurozone and the Middle East to grow at 0.9% and 0.7% respectively. “It’s not a cycle, but a new structure with winners and losers,” said Anton Sviridenko, director of the Stolypin Institute of Growth Economics, summing up the shift.
According to experts, the split reflects two distinct economic models. One is centered on high‑tech manufacturing and can absorb commodity shocks. The other remains tied to energy imports and lacks strategic tech production, leaving it exposed. This structural divergence is likely to reshape trade, investment and policy priorities.
Online opinions echo the report’s contrast. Some users praise tech‑driven economies for their resilience, while others warn that energy‑dependent nations face mounting vulnerability. The debate underscores investor concern over supply‑chain risks and the urgency of energy diversification.
Anton Sviridenko holds a PhD in economics and has advised several government bodies on industrial policy. The Stolypin Institute focuses on long‑term growth factors, which explains his structural view of the current realignment.
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